FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 14, 2026
Patricia Spencer, Communications SupervisorWater Resources Division, DNRC
Patricia.spencer@mt.gov (406) 502-8295
New Report: Montana Faces Sixth Year of Drought, Early Runoff Risk this Spring
HELENA, Mont. – The Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation (DNRC) today announced the Governor’s Drought and Water Supply Advisory Committee released its annual Drought and Water Supply Outlook Report revealing Montana is heading into its sixth straight year of abnormally dry to severe drought as spring 2026 begins., Even as most major reservoirs are poised to fill, the report highlights an unusually warm winter, low snowpack in key basins, and the potential for fast spring runoff which are raising concerns about lower late-season streamflows across much of the state.
Low elevation snow, below about 6,500 feet, melted roughly a month earlier than normal after the warmest November through February period on record in Montana. Warmer and drier conditions forecast through April could push rivers and streams to peak earlier than usual and cause flows to taper off sooner this summer if spring and early summer rains do not materialize.
“Montana got a crucial boost from late fall and early winter rains, but years of drought and one of the warmest winters on record means we are not out of the woods,” said Michael Downey, DNRC drought coordinator. “The next 10 weeks will be critical for determining this summer’s water supplies, rangeland conditions and wildfire risk.”
Two-thirds of state in drought
As of early April, about 57% of Montana is in moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) drought, with the most severe conditions concentrated in north-central, southwest and south-central regions east of the Continental Divide. Exceptionally warm, dry weather in January and February drove an unusually early expansion of drought and rapidly depleted low and mid-elevation snow statewide.
Late October through December rains eased some of the severe and extreme drought that gripped western Montana at the end of the 2025 water year, but many watersheds remain stressed after multiple years of below-average snowpack and high temperatures.
Uneven snowpack, mixed streamflow outlook
Snowpack heading into April is below normal in most basins, with especially low values projected for the Madison, Ruby, Beaverhead, Smith, Shields, Powder and Tongue River watersheds. A mid-March atmospheric river brought more than four feet of snow to parts of the Continental Divide and temporarily boosted high elevation snowpack to near average in some central and northwest basins, but record warmth in late March quickly erased snow below 6,000 feet.
Current streamflows are a mix of above-normal, normal, and below-normal conditions, reflecting both early snowmelt and improved groundwater contributions from wetter late 2025 weather. Southwestern and southeastern basins are projected at just 60 to 80 percent of median, while areas in the west and northwest are expected to see near to above median flows. Cooler, wetter conditions through June would help stretch runoff, support pasture and crop growth, and reduce late season shortages.
Big reservoirs strong, small ponds struggling
Most major state and federal reservoirs are expected to fill this spring, thanks to above average carryover from last year’s irrigation season and strong, late fall and early winter inflows. Large federal projects in western Montana except Clark Canyon are generally above 100% of average for this time of year, and facilities like Gibson Reservoir and Nevada Creek have rebounded significantly from last year’s deficits.
In contrast, many stock ponds, dugouts and prairie potholes east of the Continental Divide remain dry or only partially filled, creating ongoing challenges for livestock and wildlife that will likely persist into summer and fall in some areas. Diminished forage is forecast in parts of southwest, northcentral and northeast Montana that missed the late 2025 rains, while central Montana is currently on track for average to above average grazing conditions if spring moisture holds up.
Flood safety and drought readiness
Despite below average snowpack in many mountains, the combination of rapid snowmelt and a rain-on-snow event could still produce severe or even extreme flooding in some locations. Residents living near rivers and streams are urged to develop or update family flood evacuation plans, and consider purchasing flood insurance, keeping in mind most policies have a 30-day waiting period.
The Montana Drought and Water Supply Outlook Report is produced by DNRC on behalf of the Governor’s Drought and Water Supply Advisory Committee pursuant to MCA 2-15-3308(5). It draws on data and expertise from state, tribal, federal, and university partners including the Montana Climate Office, Natural Resources Conservation Service, U.S. Geological Survey, National Weather Service, U.S. Drought Monitor, Climate Prediction Center, and the National Integrated Drought Information System.
The full Spring 2026 report, along with maps and data dashboards, is available on the DNRC website.
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Tags: Water-Resources